ICP Price Analysis: November Gains Erased as Market Weakness Deepens

The broader crypto market has remained under pressure over the past month, weighed down by a mix of macro uncertainty, fading cycle optimism, and persistent risk-off sentiment across global markets. 

Bitcoin’s inability to sustain upside momentum above key psychological levels has filtered down to altcoins, many of which have struggled to defend recent breakouts. Internet Computer (ICP) has been no exception. After staging a sharp rally in early November, the token has since surrendered all of those gains, returning to price levels last seen before the breakout began.

On the daily ICP/USDT chart, late November marked a decisive turning point. ICP briefly spiked toward the $6.50–$7.00 region, but the move lacked follow-through. That rally was quickly met with heavy selling pressure, producing a sharp rejection and long upper wicks — a classic sign of distribution rather than accumulation. From that point onward, price action shifted decisively bearish.

As December progressed, ICP slipped back below a well-defined consolidation zone that had acted as support for much of mid-2025, roughly between $4.00 and $6.00. The breakdown from this range was technically significant. Once price lost the lower boundary near $4.00, selling accelerated, confirming a bearish range resolution. This move effectively erased the entire November advance and invalidated the bullish structure that had briefly formed.

Trend indicators reinforce this weakness. ICP is currently trading well below its short- and medium-term exponential moving averages (20, 50, and 100 EMA), all of which are sloping downward. The 200-day moving average, sitting much higher, underscores how far price has fallen from its longer-term equilibrium. Attempts at recovery in early December were capped below descending EMAs, signaling that sellers remain firmly in control and that rallies are being sold into.

The most recent candles show ICP hovering around the $2.90–$3.00 area after a steep sell-off earlier in November that briefly pushed price toward the $2.60 region. While there was a sharp bounce from those lows, it proved corrective rather than impulsive, with price quickly rolling over again. This suggests that dip buyers remain cautious, likely waiting for clearer confirmation of a bottom before committing capital.

Bearish Scenario

In the bearish case, ICP fails to reclaim the $3.50–$4.00 zone, which now acts as strong overhead resistance. Continued weakness across the broader crypto market could expose the token to another test of recent lows near $2.60. A daily close below that level would open the door to deeper downside, with little historical support until the $2.20–$2.40 region. As long as ICP remains below its key moving averages, the prevailing trend favors sellers.

Bullish Scenario

On the bullish side, stabilization above $2.80 followed by a sustained move back above $3.50 would be an early sign that selling pressure is easing. For any meaningful trend reversal, ICP would need to reclaim the former range low around $4.00 and hold it as support. 

Such a move could shift market structure back to neutral and allow for a gradual recovery toward $5.00, where the next cluster of resistance and moving averages converge. However, this scenario likely depends on broader market sentiment improving, particularly Bitcoin regaining bullish momentum.

For now, ICP remains technically vulnerable. Until clear signs of accumulation or a structural reclaim emerge, the chart suggests caution is still warranted.