Crypto Price Analysis: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana Recoil from Tariff Shock [October Update]

Global markets, including crypto, suffered a sharp, synchronised sell-off around October 10 after President Donald Trump announced a threatened 100% tariff on certain Chinese exports. That escalation rattled risk appetite across equities, commodities and digital assets, and was rapidly compounded in crypto by a cascade of leveraged liquidations and ETF/flow worries that turned a policy shock into one of the largest single-day crypto wipeouts on record. 

The global crypto market cap currently sits at $3.64T, gaining by 1.82% in the last 24 hours as the market attempts to cool off from the steep drop. Below, we unpack the price action and the likely scenarios for Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL).

Bitcoin — damaged momentum, key level is the 200-day

Bitcoin’s late-September strength, a fresh all-time high near $126k on Oct. 6, was undone quickly. Price plunged through short-term moving averages in early October and slipped below the 200-day moving average during the Oct. 10–11 liquidation event, signalling a loss of medium-term momentum. The chart shows a violent wick lower and a close back around the 200-day area (~$107k), which has become immediate supply/resistance.

Bullish scenario: BTC stabilises around the 200-day, reclaims the 20/50 EMAs and pushes above the descending trendline that capped August–October rallies. That would put $119k–$125k back in scope, with conviction returning if volume confirms a breakout and liquidations subside.

Bearish scenario: Failure to hold the 200-day opens the route lower toward psychological $100k and then the pre-October rising trendline near $92k–$95k. Given the size of the leveraged clean-up, a lack of macro stability (trade tensions, credit fears) could see a multi-week chop or continuation lower as risk assets rebalance.

Ethereum — holding the long-term shelf, but fragile

ETH’s early-October fall mirrors BTC but with slightly deeper percentage moves. The chart shows ETH dropping toward the 200-day EMA near the mid-$3ks and forming a short-term base just above that zone. That area has acted as support historically, and the most recent candles show attempts to regain the 20/50 EMAs. If buyers defend the 200-day, ETH can stage a mean-reversion leg higher.

Bullish scenario: A successful reclaim of the 20/50 EMAs into a steady uptrend would put $4,000–$4,300 in the near term, and a resumption toward the late-summer highs around $4,700–$4,800 if market risk sentiment improves. Positive catalyst flow (reduced tariff noise, liquidity stabilization) would be needed to attract institutional re-entry.

Bearish scenario: A break and daily close below the 200-day EMA (and circa $3,500) risks deeper downside to $3,000 and the lower structural support seen earlier this year. With ETF outflows and forced liquidations still a presence, a technical breach could trigger additional stop-runs and a protracted consolidation.

Solana — trapped in the box; lower support tested

Solana’s chart is notable for the rectangular band highlighted in purple — roughly the $170–205 range — which has acted as a multi-month decision zone. Early October saw SOL dip to the lower edge of that box and bounce, but intraday structure shows sellers still active and the 20/50 EMAs curling lower.

Bullish scenario: A clean reclaim of the mid-$200s and a breakout above the box with convincing volume would target prior highs near $240–260. That outcome depends heavily on renewed risk appetite and a broad market relief move that reduces cross-asset selling.

Bearish scenario: A failure to hold the lower box boundary (~$170) leads to a slide toward $140–120, where previous lows and longer-term moving averages could provide support. Given SOL’s higher beta, expect larger percentage swings in either direction relative to BTC and ETH.

What to watch next

1. Policy headlines on US-China trade and any rapid reversal or escalation — these remain the immediate macro lever.
2. Liquidation and ETF flow data — if leveraged positions finish unwinding, volatility may fall and allow range expansion to the upside. 
3. Daily closes relative to the 200-day on BTC and ETH — those are practical triggers for risk managers and systematic sellers/buyers.
    

Bottom line: the October rout was a classic macro shock amplified by leverage. Technically, all three markets remain vulnerable until the 200-day (BTC/ETH) and the lower boundary of SOL’s range hold convincingly. A reclaim of key moving averages would open a quick path to recent highs; a clean break invites deeper, multi-week repairs. Traders should manage size, watch liquidation heatmaps and let policy risk settle before assuming the last leg down is done.