Quant fund says Bitcoin is one move from a major turning point

A set of four rare onchain indicators tracked by hedge fund Hyperion Decimus has aligned for only the sixth time in Bitcoin's history, a pattern that previously coincided with market bottoms. The development is drawing attention from investors watching for signs that the current cycle is nearing a resolution.

Two Paths, 90 Days

Portfolio manager Chris Sullivan says $BTC is likely either to break above a key $82,000 resistance level or fall to as low as $48,000 in a final capitulation within 90 days before a new uptrend can be confirmed.

Sullivan argued that structural changes in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and improvements in onchain fundamentals are more important than bearish narratives, even as he maintains that the bear market pattern has not yet fully completed. He is particularly focused on what he sees as a shift in market mechanics since the launch of spot ETF products, arguing they have altered price behavior in ways that traditional macro frameworks do not capture.

One of the biggest puzzles Sullivan highlights is Bitcoin's breakdown in its historical relationship with global liquidity. He says $BTC previously tracked changes in global money supply, or global M2, with a relatively high degree of correlation, but that relationship has now diverged for roughly nine months according to his data.

Fundamentals Improving, But No All-Clear Yet

Despite muted prices, Sullivan sees several fundamental indicators improving beneath the surface, pointing to rising wallet activity, growing Bitcoin holdings moving off exchanges, and continued strength in network metrics.

Still, Sullivan stressed that he does not believe the bear market has definitively ended. "I do not think the bear market is over, because I'm looking at the fractals," he said. "I want to see a completed pattern. I do not see that yet."

Until Bitcoin either reclaims key resistance near $82,000 or experiences what Sullivan views as a final capitulation, he expects investors to remain skeptical, even as the data increasingly points toward a potential turning point.

This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

Sources:
CoinDesk: Quant fund says Bitcoin is near a major inflection point as rare onchain signals align