CZ Predicts Bitcoin Supercycle, Rules Out Return to Binance

Changpeng Zhao, known as CZ, has confirmed he will not return to Binance despite rumors of a possible comeback following his recent presidential pardon. In the recent interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin in CNBC's Squawk Box, the former CEO also predicted that Bitcoin will enter a "super-cycle" in 2026, potentially breaking the cryptocurrency's historic four-year pattern of price peaks and crashes.

Why Is CZ Not Returning to Binance?

In a January 23, 2026 interview with CNBC's Squawk Box, Zhao stated he has no plans to resume his role at the exchange he co-founded seven years ago. After initially finding it difficult to step away, he adjusted to life outside the company's daily operations.

"I haven't really needed to go back. I didn't really want to. I thought it was a pretty good way for me to step down, away from Binance after seven years," Zhao explained. "I don't think it's good for me to go back. I think we should leave room for other strong leaders to grow."

Background on CZ's Legal Issues

Zhao pleaded guilty in November 2023 to failing to maintain an effective Anti-Money Laundering program at Binance. The charges stemmed from his influence in enabling money laundering activities through the exchange. He received a four-month prison sentence and was required to resign from his position.

US President Donald Trump granted Zhao a presidential pardon in October 2025, clearing his record. Trump justified the decision by stating Zhao was unfairly prosecuted. The pardon drew scrutiny from some US lawmakers who questioned Binance's connections to Trump-linked crypto ventures, though Trump denied knowing Zhao personally.

CZ's Current Role at Binance

Zhao maintains his position as a shareholder but describes himself as "pretty passive." He no longer provides direct guidance to company leadership, instead sharing occasional advice through Twitter.

"I just thought, look; they don't need a backseat driver today. I'm still a shareholder," Zhao said. "When I want to give them advice, I just write it on Twitter."

Will Bitcoin Break Its Four-Year Cycle?

Zhao believes 2026 will mark a significant shift in Bitcoin's market behavior. The cryptocurrency has historically followed four-year cycles tied to halving events, which reduce mining rewards and new supply. These cycles typically produce an all-time high followed by substantial price corrections.

However, Zhao argues that changing regulatory conditions in the United States will disrupt this pattern. 

"I think this year given the US being so pro-crypto and every other country is kind of following, I do think we will see this. We will probably break the four-year cycle," he stated.

Understanding Bitcoin Halving Events

Bitcoin halving occurs approximately every four years when the reward for mining new blocks gets cut in half. This mechanism reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin enters circulation, creating scarcity. Previous halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 preceded significant price rallies, establishing the four-year cycle pattern many traders follow.

What Are CZ's Bitcoin Price Predictions?

When asked about specific price targets, Zhao emphasized the importance of timeframe. He declined to make short-term forecasts but expressed confidence in long-term growth.

"If you look on 5-10 years horizon it's very easy to predict - we're gonna go up," Zhao said during the interview.

The former executive confirmed he does not actively trade Bitcoin, instead holding it long-term alongside Binance's native BNB token.

Current Bitcoin Market Analysis

Bitcoin is trading around $87,500 at the time of writing, after pulling back from its $97,000-$98,000 peak earlier this month. The technical picture shows bearish signals, with BTC sitting below both the Ichimoku cloud and key exponential moving average (EMA) lines.

Key price levels to watch:

• Current price: $87,790 - below the previously critical $88,000 support
• Next support targets: $85,000 if selling pressure continues
• Immediate resistance: $88,000 - now a key level to reclaim
• Major resistance: $93,000 - Bitcoin needs to flip above this and shorter-period EMAs to shift momentum back to buyers

The break below $88,000 confirms the bearish momentum that has dominated recent trading. Traders are watching whether Bitcoin can stabilize at current levels or if further declines toward $85,000 are ahead.

Conclusion

CZ has definitively closed the door on returning to Binance, maintaining his passive shareholder role while the exchange operates under new leadership. His prediction of a Bitcoin super-cycle in 2026 centers on pro-crypto regulatory shifts in the United States, which he believes will fundamentally alter the cryptocurrency's established four-year pattern. 

While Bitcoin currently faces technical headwinds around the $87,000 level, CZ's long-term holding strategy reflects his confidence in sustained price appreciation over the next 5-10 years.

Resources

1. Changpeng Zhao on X: Recent posts (January 2026)

2. Bitcoin chart on TradingView: Bitcoin price action

3. Press release by US Department of Justice: Binance and CEO Plead Guilty to Federal Charges in $4B Resolution

4. Report by WSJ: Trump Pardons Convicted Binance Founder