BubbleMaps Says Possible Insiders Made ~$1 Million Betting on Iran Strikes

Six anonymous Polymarket accounts made roughly $1 million betting "Yes" on US strikes against Iran before bombs started falling on February 28, according to blockchain analytics firm BubbleMaps, which initially estimated the total profit at $1.2 million.

An independent review by The Block, which examined all six Polymarket profiles and their per-trade profit-and-loss breakdowns, put the actual combined net profit at $989,191. BubbleMaps flagged the wallets within hours of the attack, pointing to freshly funded accounts, suspicious timing, and zero prior trading history as red flags.

No formal investigation has confirmed insider trading, though the pattern has drawn scrutiny from lawmakers and analysts alike. Either way, the finding has reignited a fierce debate over whether prediction markets are becoming playgrounds for people with access to classified intelligence.

What Did BubbleMaps Find?

BubbleMaps published its analysis on February 28, the same day the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran under operations codenamed "Epic Fury" and "Roaring Lion." The attacks targeted Iran's leadership, military infrastructure, and nuclear sites, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei along with other senior officials.

According to BubbleMaps, the six flagged accounts shared several traits:

• Most were funded within 24 hours of the strikes
• All were created in February 2026
• They specifically targeted the February 28 date
• Some executed trades at identical timestamps
• Several placed "decoy" bets on nearby dates to mask their activity

The biggest winner was a wallet starting with 0x1caA6a, which scooped up over 560,000 "Yes" shares at roughly 10.8 cents each. When the strikes hit and those shares paid out at $1, the account netted close to $500,000 in profit.

Another account called "Dicedicedice" bought nearly 150,000 shares at 20 cents, walking away with about $120,000. Four other accounts, including "Neodbs" and "Planktonbets," rounded out the group.

None of the wallets had any trading activity before these bets.

How Big Was the Polymarket Surge?

The Iran contracts drove Polymarket to record volume, with $529 million traded across the "US strikes Iran by...?" family of contracts overall. Activity was heaviest on February 28, where the single-day contract pulled roughly $90 million on its own, and the broader "Politics" category surged alongside it.

BubbleMaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman noted that the platform's anonymity, combined with the sensitive nature of war-related intelligence, creates obvious incentives for anyone with early knowledge to act on it.

Is This the First Time?

Not even close. This follows a pattern that crypto watchers have seen before on Polymarket. Similar anonymous profits raised red flags during the US capture of Venezuelan President Maduro in January 2026, where a single fresh account turned $32,000 into over $400,000 in less than 24 hours. Going back further, Israeli prosecutors filed indictments in early February 2026 against an IDF reservist and a civilian for allegedly using classified military intelligence to bet on the platform during the June 2025 Twelve-Day War, earning over $150,000 in combined profits.

The recurring pattern is always the same: fresh wallets appear, load up on cheap "Yes" shares for an event that seems unlikely, and cash out when it happens.

What Are Lawmakers Saying?

The political backlash has been swift. Senator Chris Murphy announced on February 27 that he is working on legislation to ban what he called "corrupt and destabilizing" prediction markets, saying people were "profiting off war and death."

Representative Ritchie Torres had already introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 back in January, responding to the suspicious Venezuela trades. That bill would bar federal elected officials, political appointees, and executive branch employees from trading prediction market contracts tied to government policy when they possess material nonpublic information.

On X, reactions ranged from unsurprised cynicism to outright anger. Some users called it just another day of insider trading in crypto. Others pointed to the moral problem of profiting from military strikes while service members are in harm's way. Critics are calling for prediction markets to be regulated heavily or shut down entirely, arguing they reward leaks rather than genuine forecasting.

Where Does This Leave Polymarket?

As of March 2, the US-Iran conflict has entered its third day. Four American service members have been killed, Iran has launched retaliatory strikes across the region, and General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has indicated operations could last up to four weeks.

Meanwhile, Polymarket sits at the center of a growing compliance and national security headache. The platform's core value proposition, that open markets produce better forecasts than experts, looks increasingly complicated when those markets appear to be fed by classified information rather than crowd wisdom.

Whether regulators act fast enough to change anything before the next geopolitical crisis is anyone's guess. But the pattern is becoming hard to ignore.

Sources:

• The Block — Independent review of all six flagged Polymarket profiles, per-trade profit-and-loss breakdowns, and combined net profit of $989,191
• TechCrunch — Reporting on BubbleMaps' analysis, wallet details, profit figures, and Polymarket volume data
• Bloomberg — Reporting on $529 million total trading volume and BubbleMaps findings
• CNN — Coverage of US-Israel strikes, Operation Epic Fury, casualties, and Iranian retaliation
• CBS News — CENTCOM confirmation of four US service members killed
• CoinDesk — Details on wallet activity, BubbleMaps findings, and Israeli indictments
• BeInCrypto — Coverage of Senator Murphy's proposed legislation and industry response
• Axios — Reporting on Torres' Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026
• BubbleMaps on X — Original analysis thread posted February 28, 2026