When Will CLARITY Finally Pass?

Senate Banking is now targeting the week of May 11 to mark up the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, the firmest scheduling signal yet for crypto's long-awaited market structure bill. Whether the legislation actually clears the Senate floor, gets reconciled with the House version, and reaches President Trump's desk in 2026 is a much harder question, and most expert estimates land near a coin flip.

Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) put the odds at "roughly 50-50" in an April 22 note. Polymarket traders are slightly more bearish, with 2026 signing contracts trading between 38 and 49 percent after collapsing from 82 percent in February. TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg pegs it lower still, at one in three.

What is the bill, and where does it sit?

The CLARITY Act is the most ambitious U.S. crypto legislation ever drafted. It splits jurisdiction by classifying most tokens as "digital commodities" under the CFTC while leaving the SEC in charge of securities issuance. It creates a registration framework for exchanges and intermediaries, builds in protections for DeFi protocols, shields non-custodial developers under language carried over from the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, and slots in alongside the separate GENIUS Act on stablecoins.

The House passed it 294 to 134 on July 17, 2025, a strongly bipartisan vote. The Senate received the bill on September 18 and referred it to the Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee. A parallel Senate Agriculture Committee version cleared 12 to 11 in January.

Five hurdles still stand between the bill and a presidential signature:

• Senate Banking Committee markup
• A 60-vote Senate floor vote
• Reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture version
• Reconciliation with the House version
• Presidential signature

Why are the odds firming up now?

The shift in tone over the past week has been notable. Senator Cynthia Lummis (@SenLummis) told the Bitcoin 2026 Conference on Monday: "We are gonna markup the CLARITY Act in May. We are gonna get it to the finish line."

Senator Thom Tillis (@SenThomTillis), who controls the final stablecoin yield text, said the bill is "ready to get to hearing" in comments to reporters on Capitol Hill this week. He plans to ask the Banking chair to schedule the markup as soon as the Senate returns, with the yield language released "four to five days in advance."

The most striking read came from White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt (@patrickjwitt) on a panel this week. "Dial back the clock six months ago, we had probably 12 or 15 issues. We're down to call it two or three now." Witt called the stablecoin compromise "durable" and said other blockers had been quietly cleared behind the scenes. "Once the CLARITY Act passes, this industry is going to take off like a rocket ship."

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) has publicly targeted spring 2026. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse (@bgarlinghouse), who had pegged April as the realistic deadline, has slid his estimate to May. JPMorgan analysts have called mid-year passage a positive catalyst for digital assets.

What is still actually blocking it?

The fight over stablecoin yield has dominated negotiations for months. The Tillis-Alsobrooks compromise, brokered by the White House in March, bans passive yield paid "solely for holding" but permits narrowly defined activity-based rewards tied to payments, transfers, or actual usage.

Coinbase initially balked at the framework but reversed course on April 10 after pressure from Bessent and a public endorsement from CEO Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong). A White House Council of Economic Advisers report on April 8 weakened the banking lobby's central argument, finding that a full yield ban would lift bank lending by only $2.1 billion, or 0.02 percent of total loans, at a cost of roughly $800 million to consumers. The American Bankers Association and state-level groups, including the North Carolina Bankers Association, are still pushing Tillis to drop the yield provisions entirely.

Beyond stablecoin yield, Galaxy flags a handful of live disputes: the DeFi provisions, locking down every Republican vote on the Banking Committee, ethics rules covering officials' personal crypto holdings, and the precise scope of non-custodial developer protections.

What does the calendar actually allow?

The pessimist's case is built on simple arithmetic. Roughly 13 weeks of Senate floor time remain in 2026, but once Memorial Day on May 21, the August recess, and the lead-up to the November midterms are subtracted, working time shrinks closer to nine or ten weeks. That is the window for markup, a 60-vote floor vote, two reconciliations, and a signing ceremony.

Senator Bernie Moreno (@berniemoreno) was the bluntest voice on the timing risk. Speaking on April 22, he warned that without movement by the end of May, the bill could be shelved indefinitely. Lummis has gone further on the long-term consequences, suggesting that missing this Congress entirely could push comprehensive crypto market structure rules out to 2030.

President Trump has put his own pressure on the banking lobby. In a recent statement aimed at institutions opposing the yield compromise, he said the administration will not let them "undermine our crypto stability" and warned that "if the CLARITY Act doesn't pass, this will go to China."

So when does it actually pass?

If the Banking Committee holds the markup the week of May 11 and the stablecoin yield text survives intact, a floor vote before the August recess becomes plausible. Miss that window, and the math gets ugly fast.

The market is already pricing this. Polymarket's drop from 82 percent to under 50 percent in two months reflects every missed deadline since February. Galaxy, TD Cowen, and Kalshi are all clustered in the 30 to 50 percent range.

The week of May 11 will be the one to keep your eyes on.

Sources:

• Congress.gov Official actions log for H.R. 3633, the CLARITY Act
• Galaxy Digital April 22 research note from Alex Thorn estimating 2026 passage odds at roughly 50-50
• Fox Business Reporting from Chase Williams on Senator Tillis's April 29 Capitol Hill remarks confirming markup is ready to schedule
• Various X accounts Quotes from Lummis, Witt, Moreno, Bessent, Garlinghouse, and Trump