The identity of Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, has remained one of the greatest mysteries in modern technology. 

In October 2008, an anonymous figure using the pseudonym "Satoshi Nakamoto" released the Bitcoin whitepaper, outlining the blueprint for a decentralized digital currency. Bitcoin’s peer-to-peer system and cryptographic principles made it revolutionary, allowing users to transfer value without the need for intermediaries like banks. 

By 2011, Nakamoto disappeared from the internet, leaving behind a significant Bitcoin stash and a mysterious legacy.

Since the release of the famous whitepaper in 2008, the true identity of Nakamoto has fueled endless debate, with several figures put forward as the mastermind behind the cryptocurrency that changed the world. 

As speculation continues, the most prominent candidates today include Nick Szabo and Len Sassaman, with many betting odds pointing toward Szabo. However, the debate is far from settled.

Is it Nick Szabo?

Nick Szabo, a computer scientist and legal scholar, is widely considered one of the top candidates to be Satoshi Nakamoto. His work on digital currencies dates back to the late 1990s when he developed the concept of Bit Gold, an early attempt at a decentralized digital currency. 

Bit Gold shared several key concepts with Bitcoin, including proof-of-work mining and cryptographic security, making it a precursor to Bitcoin’s design. Although Bit Gold never took off, its ideas strongly influenced Bitcoin’s development.

Szabo is also credited with pioneering the concept of smart contracts in a 1996 paper, long before they became widely known through blockchain platforms like Ethereum. His deep understanding of cryptography, decentralized systems, and the economic principles behind Bitcoin makes him a prime candidate for being Nakamoto.

Several clues have pointed toward Szabo as the true Satoshi. Author Dominic Frisby, in his book Bitcoin: The Future of Money?, consulted a stylometrics expert who analyzed Szabo’s writing style, concluding that it closely resembled Satoshi’s. 

Additionally, both Szabo and Satoshi made similar references to economist Carl Menger. Despite these compelling arguments, Szabo has consistently denied being Nakamoto.

Len Sassaman?

Another strong candidate is Len Sassaman, a cryptographer known for his work on privacy technologies. Sassaman was deeply involved in the Cypherpunk movement, a group of activists advocating for privacy and cryptographic technologies. He worked on encryption tools like Pretty Good Privacy (PGP), which helped secure online communications.

Sassaman’s life tragically ended in 2011, the same year Nakamoto disappeared from the internet. This coincidence has fueled speculation that Sassaman could be Nakamoto. 

Sassaman’s deep involvement in the cryptographic community, combined with his proximity to other Bitcoin figures like Hal Finney and David Chaum, makes him a compelling candidate.

The cryptographer’s connection to Bitcoin is further strengthened by a tribute to him encoded into Block 138725 of the Bitcoin blockchain. 

However, some, including his widow Meredith Patterson, have dismissed the theory. In an interview with DL News, Patterson has pointed out that Sassaman used a Mac, while Satoshi’s development was heavily focused on Linux. Despite this, the mystery remains.

Polymarket Odds and the HBO Documentary

The debate over Satoshi’s true identity took a new turn with the release of betting odds on Polymarket, a prediction market. As of October 8, 2024, Sassaman is the frontrunner, with 12.5% odds, overtaking Nick Szao, who stands at 9.8%, at the time of writing. 

Other candidates, such as Blockstream CEO Adam Back and cryptographer Hal Finney, lag behind with much lower odds. The highest odds, 57.5%, currently favor the option that Satoshi’s identity might be tied to "Other/Multiple" individuals.

The recent spike in interest is driven by the upcoming HBO documentary Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery, which claims to name Bitcoin’s creator. 

The documentary’s producer, Cullen Hoback, hinted that he confronted someone in person who he believes is Satoshi, likely ruling out candidates like Sassaman, who died in 2011, and Finney, who passed away in 2014.

Hoback has stated:

"We make a strong case [...] and I think their reaction is in some ways more telling than even the evidence itself." 

The documentary is expected to shine new light on the debate, though whether it will definitively answer the question of Satoshi’s identity remains uncertain.

The Other Candidates: A Long List of Possibilities

Apart from Szabo and Sassaman, other candidates have surfaced over the years. Among them is Paul Le Roux, a former criminal mastermind and software programmer, who has 1.6% odds on Polymarket. 

Some believe Le Roux could have used Bitcoin as a means to launder money through his illegal operations. However, no solid evidence links him to Nakamoto.

The list also includes well-known figures like Elon Musk, Craig Wright, and Dorian Nakamoto, though these claims have largely been debunked. Adam Back, who was involved in early cryptography projects, has denied being Satoshi but remains a popular candidate with 10.8% odds.