Telcoin (TEL) Struggles for Direction as New Year Volatility Tests Market Confidence

The cryptocurrency market has entered 2026 on a cautious footing. Bitcoin, which closed December under pressure has seemingly held above a 100 weekly moving average, a key psychological level, leading to a positive price action into the first few trading days of the new year. Risk appetite across altcoins remains muted as traders reassess macro conditions, liquidity expectations, and post-holiday positioning. 

Within this broader context, Telcoin (TEL) has mirrored the market’s indecision, showing limited follow-through after its sharp November rebound and spending the past 30 days consolidating near multi-week lows.

On the daily TEL/USDT chart, price action over the last month reflects a clear loss of momentum. After peaking near the $0.0068–$0.0070 region in early December, TEL entered a corrective phase that erased roughly 30% of its value, bringing price back toward the $0.0038–$0.0040 zone. This decline followed a rejection from a descending trendline that has capped upside attempts since mid-2024, reinforcing the broader bearish structure still present on higher timeframes.

Over the past 30 days, TEL has largely traded below its short- and medium-term moving averages. The 20-day and 50-day EMAs have rolled over and now sit above price, acting as dynamic resistance around the $0.0043–$0.0045 region. Meanwhile, the 100-day and 200-day EMAs remain clustered slightly higher, strengthening the overhead supply zone and making any immediate bullish reversal technically challenging. The inability of TEL to reclaim these levels since mid-December suggests that buyers are still cautious and unwilling to chase price higher in the current environment.

That said, there are early signs that downside momentum may be slowing. The $0.0036–$0.0038 area has acted as a short-term demand zone, with multiple daily candles showing long lower wicks, indicating dip-buying interest. This level also aligns closely with prior consolidation from October, giving it added technical relevance. As long as TEL holds above this zone, the risk of a deeper breakdown remains contained.

Bullish scenario:

For a constructive outlook to develop, TEL needs to stabilize above the $0.0038 support and reclaim the 20-day EMA. A daily close above $0.0043 would be an early signal that short-term momentum is shifting. If buyers can then push price above the $0.0047–$0.0050 region, where the 100-day and 200-day EMAs converge, it would mark a meaningful technical improvement. Such a move could open the door for a retest of $0.0058, followed by the December high near $0.0068, especially if Bitcoin regains strength and broader market sentiment improves.

Bearish scenario:

On the downside, failure to hold the $0.0036–$0.0038 support zone would likely expose TEL to renewed selling pressure. A decisive breakdown below this area could trigger a move toward $0.0032, with the next major support near the November swing low around $0.0028. Given the prevailing downtrend and the positioning of moving averages, a loss of current support would reinforce the bearish structure and delay any recovery attempt into later Q1.

While selling pressure has eased compared to early December, the broader trend remains fragile for Telcoin. Until price reclaims key moving averages and breaks above established resistance, Telcoin’s near-term outlook will remain closely tied to Bitcoin’s direction and overall market risk sentiment.