Will Crypto Follow Gold & Silver? Analysis

Bitcoin and crypto will likely follow gold and silver higher, but expect a delay. History shows capital tends to rotate from peaking precious metals into digital assets. The question is timing.

Gold crushed it in 2025, climbing over 65% to trade around $5,268 per ounce. Silver did even better, exploding nearly 148% to roughly $119.47 per ounce. Bitcoin? Sitting at approximately $84,690 with weak year-over-year gains. This divergence has traders asking whether crypto is decoupling from precious metals or simply lags behind. (Note: These figures shift.)

Bitcoin tends to follow gold with a lag of weeks to months. If that pattern holds, the current gap could close once metals stabilize and profit-taking kicks in.

Why Are Gold and Silver Ripping?

Several factors drove precious metals to historic highs. Federal Reserve Chair Powell characterized U.S. debt as "unsustainable," undermining confidence in the dollar. Geopolitical tensions added fuel. Investors worldwide sought hard assets as a hedge against currency debasement.

Silver entered what analysts call "price discovery" territory after breaking through key resistance levels. Some targets now range from $106 to $200 in extreme scenarios. Gold forecasts range from $5,000 to $6,000 for 2026.

These moves reflect deep concerns about fiat currencies. When trust in paper money erodes, hard assets benefit. That logic extends to crypto.

Has This Happened Before?

Yes. Both asset classes surged together during 2020 and 2021 when pandemic stimulus flooded markets, and inflation fears spiked. The correlation exists, especially during crises.

However, timing differs based on market mood. Gold and silver typically thrive in "risk-off" environments when investors want safety. Crypto usually needs "risk-on" sentiment to pump hard. In 2025, the risk-off trade dominated, leaving Bitcoin in the dust.

Looking at longer timeframes, silver has tracked gold closely since the 2000s. Bitcoin ranks as a strong second in what traders call the "debasement trade" over the past five years. This suggests that current crypto prices may reflect undervaluation relative to the inflation-hedge narrative.

What Are the Experts Saying?

Views range from ultra-bullish to completely dismissive. Here's how key voices break down:

Bullish:

• Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy): "Historically, Bitcoin has outperformed gold over every holding period of four years or longer." Views BTC as superior digital gold due to fixed supply and portability.
• Cathie Wood (ARK Invest): Sees Bitcoin competing directly with gold for safe-haven flows. Warns a strong dollar could cap gold prices like during the Reagan era, redirecting capital toward BTC. "Its role as a store of value should have soared."
• Raoul Pal (Real Vision): Says gold's recent outperformance "barely registers" on long-term logarithmic charts. Since 2019, gold dropped 85% against Bitcoin. Sees current divergences as normal lead-lag behavior.
• Tom Lee (Fundstrat): Simple framework: "Gold moves lead crypto." Expects Bitcoin's breakout once precious metals peak and consolidate.

Neutral:

• Changpeng Zhao (CZ, former Binance CEO): Highlights crypto's verifiability advantage. Points to fake gold and silver bars flooding markets, something impossible with blockchain-verified Bitcoin. "With crypto, you know with 100% certainty without doing anything."

Bearish:

• Peter Schiff (gold advocate): Views gold and silver surges as confirmation fiat currencies are failing but dismisses Bitcoin as "fool's gold" without intrinsic value. Predicts a "spectacular crash" rather than a rally.

How Could the Rotation Play Out?

Picture gold and silver as battle-tested veterans of the safe-haven trade. Reliable, but bulky and vulnerable to counterfeiting. Crypto plays the nimble upstart, combining gold's scarcity with programmable utility.

As metals hit forecasted peaks, profit-taking becomes inevitable. Where does that capital go? Some flows back to cash. Some moves into equities. But increasingly, investors consider tokenized assets and crypto as alternatives.

Kyrgyzstan launched a gold-backed stablecoin on BNB Chain, demonstrating how these worlds already intersect. Retail and institutional investors seeking higher returns may pivot to crypto, especially Bitcoin ETFs or utility-focused altcoins.

Risks exist. Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone warns of "dangerous extremes" in gold and potential deflationary pressures that could push Bitcoin toward $10,000 in a worst-case scenario. Regulatory hurdles could also delay any rotation.

What Should You Watch?

Three factors will signal the pivot point. First, monitor capital flows from precious metals ETFs. Sustained outflows suggest rotation may begin. Second, track inflation data closely. Persistent inflation favors all hard assets, including crypto. Third, watch for expert signals from individuals such as Saylor, Wood, and Lee, who have historically called turning points.

If fiat trust continues to erode, both metals and cryptocurrencies win in the long term. However, crypto's exponential upside potential, particularly Bitcoin's challenge to gold's market capitalization, could turn the follower into the leader.

For more crypto market analysis, visit bsc.news or follow @BSCNews on X.

Sources:

• Fortune - Current gold price data as of January 28, 2026
• Fortune - Current silver price data as of January 29, 2026
• Yahoo Finance - Bitcoin historical price data
• Michael Saylor on X - Bitcoin outperformance over gold statement
• Cathie Wood on X - Bitcoin as store of value commentary
• Raoul Pal on X - Long-term gold vs BTC chart analysis
• Peter Schiff on X - Bearish crypto perspective
• Fundstrat on X - Tom Lee on gold leading crypto
• Forbes - Dollar collapse warning and crypto outlook
• CryptoSlate - Bitcoin lag pattern analysis