Chainlink Co-Founder Sergey Nazarov Shares Personal Outlook on Crypto Markets

Sergey Nazarov thinks this bear market tells a completely different story than the last one. The Chainlink co-founder posted his personal outlook on X on February 9, laying out why the current downturn actually proves the crypto industry has leveled up, and why real-world assets could eventually outsize crypto itself.

The total crypto market cap has dropped roughly 44% from its October all-time high of $4.4 trillion. Almost $2 trillion left the space in four months. But Nazarov isn't panicking. He's pointing at the damage and asking: what's missing?

What Makes This Cycle Different?

The short answer: nobody blew up.

"There have been no large risk management failures leading to large institutional failures or widespread systemic risks," Nazarov wrote. "This time has been much better managed than last time."

Compare that to 2022. FTX imploded. Celsius, Voyager, and BlockFi went down like dominoes. Three Arrows Capital took half the industry with it. This cycle? Despite sharp drawdowns, no major institution has collapsed. No contagion. No cascading liquidations wiping out retail overnight.

For Nazarov, that's the signal. If the crypto industry can "successfully weather large drawdowns in price and liquidity issues then it is a more reliable place to put both retail/client capital and institutional capital." Stability during a bear market is what opens the door for serious money.

Why RWA Growth Doesn't Care About Bitcoin's Price

The second pillar of Nazarov's outlook is arguably the more compelling one. Real-world asset tokenization keeps growing regardless of where Bitcoin trades.

On-chain tokenized RWA value now sits at roughly $24 billion, according to RWA.xyz, up from just $1.2 billion in early 2023. Some analysts project it could top $100 billion before the end of 2026. Nazarov pointed to specific proof: "We've seen leading on-chain perp markets rival tradfi perp markets for very traditional commodities like silver, especially in periods when trading in permissioned traditional markets became harder or more risky."

That decoupling matters. RWA migration on-chain "is not tightly coupled to cryptocurrency prices but provides its own unique value that can grow irrespective of market pricing of Bitcoin or other crypto assets," he wrote. These aren't assets riding the hype cycle. They're providing standalone value through 24/7 markets, transparent on-chain collateral, and real-time data.

Three Trends Nazarov Says Will Reshape the Industry

Nazarov outlined three converging forces he believes will define crypto's next phase of mainstream adoption.

First, on-chain perps and tokenization have "unique and durable long-term value" that grows regardless of broader market conditions. Always-on markets with on-chain collateral management aren't speculative. They're structural.

Second, institutional adoption will follow technology, not hype. "Institutional adoption of our industry will be driven by the fundamental/technology value it provides, accelerated by access to permissionless/always on markets in DeFi, which will grow massively as a result," he wrote.

Third, infrastructure demand will surge. As more complex RWAs move on-chain, "more systems will need to interface with chains to enable those RWAs." Nazarov positioned Chainlink at the center of that demand, citing the protocol's 70%+ DeFi market share for data provision, partnerships with S&P and ICE, and the Chainlink Runtime Environment for orchestrating workflows across multiple chains and off-chain systems. Grayscale called Chainlink "essential infrastructure" for tokenized finance in a dedicated research report last November, pegging the tokenization market at $35 billion and growing.

Could RWAs Actually Surpass Crypto?

This is where Nazarov goes big. It's a prediction he's been making for years, but it carries more weight now with the data behind it.

"If these trends continue I believe what I have been saying for years will happen; on-chain RWAs will surpass cryptocurrency in the total value in our industry and what our industry is about will fundamentally change."

The numbers back the ambition. ARK Invest's Big Ideas 2026 report projected tokenized assets could exceed $11 trillion by 2030. If even a fraction of global real estate, commodities, equities, and fund products migrate on-chain, that dwarfs the current crypto market cap.

Nazarov isn't saying crypto dies in this scenario. He's saying it grows alongside RWAs, but the industry's center of gravity shifts. "This shift will also lead to cryptocurrency's growth as an asset class that benefits from more capital on-chain, but RWAs is how all of this goes mainstream."

He's not alone in the optimism either. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani called the current downturn the "weakest bitcoin bear case in its history" in a note to clients the same day, reiterating a $150,000 BTC price target for 2026.

Nazarov closed with conviction: "I have never been more excited about our industry's potential to become the way a better version of the global financial system works to benefit all of us."

Follow Sergey Nazarov on X at @SergeyNazarov and Chainlink at @chainlink to catch  the latest news.

Sources:

• Sergey Nazarov on X — Original post sharing his personal outlook on crypto markets and RWA trends (February 9, 2026)
• Grayscale Research — "The LINK Between Worlds" report calling Chainlink essential infrastructure for tokenized finance (November 2025)
• ARK Invest Big Ideas 2026 — Projections for tokenized assets exceeding $11 trillion by 2030 (January 2026)
• Bernstein via Sherwood News — Analyst Gautam Chhugani's note calling this the weakest Bitcoin bear case in history (February 2026)
• RWA.xyz — Live on-chain RWA tokenization data showing $24 billion in distributed asset value (February 2026)