ETF Flows Flip Bearish as BTC Slides Below $66K

U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs lost a combined $405 million on February 11, snapping a brief three-day inflow streak. Bitcoin products accounted for $276.3 million of the bleed, while Ethereum ETFs shed $129.18 million.

The reversal lands at an uncomfortable time. Bitcoin is trading around $65,604 as of February 12, well below the $70,000 psychological level that bulls have failed to reclaim. Ethereum sits near $1,918, deep underwater from the average entry point of ETF holders.

How Bad Is the Bigger Picture?

One red day doesn't make a trend, but zoom out and the numbers tell a harder story. Investors withdrew approximately $5.7 billion from spot Bitcoin ETFs between November 2025 and January 2026, with January alone accounting for over $1.9 billion in net outflows. Rolling 30-day flows for Bitcoin products have turned firmly negative, marking the longest sustained stretch of outflows since these funds launched.

Bitcoin spot ETFs still hold $85.76 billion in total net assets on $54.72 billion in cumulative net inflows, representing 6.35% of Bitcoin's market cap. Ethereum's numbers are smaller but still meaningful: $11.27 billion in net assets off $11.75 billion in cumulative inflows, covering 4.78% of ETH's market cap. The capital base hasn't collapsed, but the tap is running the other way.

Ethereum-focused products have seen more than $1.5 billion withdrawn during the same period. Analysts note that while individual sessions still occasionally show positive flows, those green days haven't been enough to offset the broader wave of selling and deleveraging.

Where Does That Leave ETF Holders?

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart pegged the average cost basis for Ethereum ETF holders at around $3,500, putting them at roughly a 45% loss at current prices. Bitcoin ETF investors are better off by comparison but still underwater, carrying an average 18% decline from a cost basis near $83,983.

Despite those losses, many Ethereum holders appear to be sitting tight. Net inflows have dropped from about $15 billion to below $12 billion, but the pace of redemptions has shown some resilience. Seyffart called it "a much worse selloff than the Bitcoin ETFs on a relative basis, but still fairly decent diamond hands in grand scheme (for now)."

Where Is the Capital Going?

Gold ETFs have hit record demand, with assets under management reaching $559 billion after $89 billion in annual inflows during 2025. That contrast highlights a clear shift in institutional risk appetite, with capital rotating out of volatile digital assets and into established stores of value.

This defensive posture lines up with what price action is saying. Bitcoin's consolidation below $70,000, combined with drying liquidity and realized losses across the market, has some analysts projecting sideways movement could extend into mid-2026.

What Would Reverse the Trend?

Market watchers point to sustained daily inflows exceeding $100 million for Bitcoin products as a signal that sentiment has genuinely shifted. Until that happens, the data favors caution. Broader risk sentiment, interest rate expectations, and volatility levels will all play a role in determining whether institutional capital finds its way back into crypto ETFs or keeps moving into traditional assets.

For now, the message from the flow data is straightforward: big money is playing defense.

Sources:

• SoSoValue — Real-time U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flow data, cumulative net inflows, and total net asset tracking.
• CoinMarketCap — Live Bitcoin and Ethereum price data as of February 12, 2026.
• Sherwood News — Reporting on ETF holder cost basis, unrealized losses, and Ethereum investor positioning via Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart.
• AInvest — Analysis of the 2026 Bitcoin ETF liquidity test, institutional flow patterns, and recovery thresholds.
• AInvest — Data on gold ETF record demand, $559 billion AUM, and $89 billion in 2025 annual inflows.
• Investing.com — Market outlook on Bitcoin price consolidation and projected sideways movement through mid-2026.
• World Gold Council — Primary source for 2025 gold ETF inflow records and global holdings data.