VanEck Analysts Forecast Bitcoin Price at $644,000: Will this Happen?

VanEck analysts have projected that Bitcoin could reach $644,000 per coin, a forecast tied to the cryptocurrency capturing half of gold's market capitalization after the 2028 halving event. 

This prediction, issued by Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at the asset management firm, comes amid Bitcoin's rebound to around $123,000 in October 2025 and gold's climb above $4,000 per ounce. 

While the estimate draws on comparisons between Bitcoin and gold as stores of value, its realization depends on factors like demographic shifts, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic trends, raising questions about whether such a price level is achievable in the medium term.

The Basis of VanEck's Bitcoin Price Forecast

The core of VanEck's analysis rests on Bitcoin's potential to serve as a digital alternative to gold, particularly in its role as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement. Sigel estimates gold's total market capitalization at approximately $27 trillion, based on its price exceeding $4,000 per ounce in October 2025, marking a 50% year-to-date increase. Of this, about 50%, or $13.5 trillion, represents gold's function as a pure store of value, excluding industrial applications like electronics and jewelry demand. 

If Bitcoin were to capture this segment, divided across its capped supply of 21 million coins, with roughly 19.8 million already mined as of October 2025, the per-coin value would approach $644,000, calculated as $13.5 trillion divided by 21 million, yielding approximately $642,857 before rounding.

This projection aligns with Bitcoin's scarcity mechanics, amplified by halvings that reduce new supply issuance. The next halving in 2028 would lower the annual issuance rate to 0.78%, enhancing Bitcoin's appeal as a scarce asset similar to gold. Sigel describes Bitcoin as a "second-wave beneficiary" in the ongoing "debasement trade," where rising government deficits, monetary easing, and global instability drive demand for non-fiat assets. 

Gold has led this trend, but Bitcoin could follow as younger demographics in emerging markets, such as India and Southeast Asia, prefer its portability and divisibility over physical gold for wealth preservation. Surveys indicate this shift among millennials and Generation Z, who view Bitcoin as more accessible for remittances and cross-border transfers.

Current market conditions support parts of this outlook. As of October 2025, Bitcoin's network hashrate stands at a record 902 exahashes per second, up 47% year-over-year, indicating robust security and miner commitment. Miner stocks, such as Cipher Mining, have rallied 12% amid Bitcoin's recovery from a dip to $120,000, driven by AI-related demand for computing infrastructure. VanEck's broader 2025 cryptocurrency predictions include Bitcoin maintaining 55-60% market dominance and spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracting $20-30 billion in inflows, which could propel intermediate price targets before the $644,000 level.

Historical Context of VanEck's Bitcoin Predictions

VanEck, managing over $100 billion in assets, has tracked Bitcoin since at least 2017, when it first applied for a spot ETF. The firm's forecasts have evolved, often building on gold analogies. In 2021, Sigel outlined scenarios where Bitcoin could hit $2.9 million in a bull case by 2050, assuming it captures 5-10% of global trade, remittances, and reserves, with a money velocity of 2-5, and central banks holding 2.5% in Bitcoin. 

More recent calls include an $80,000 target for 2024 post-ETF approvals, emphasizing sovereign adoption and miner performance, with cycle peaks estimated at $180,000 to $325,000. Bitcoin reached $73,000 in March 2024, aligning with these estimates amid post-halving gains. 

For 2025, Sigel has reiterated $180,000 by year-end, while some analysts have upgraded to $225,000 based on ETF demand. At Bitcoin's current price near $123,000, this implies about 45% upside by December 2025.

Sigel has discussed these views on platforms like CNBC, describing Bitcoin as positioned for gains in elections and recoveries from market sell-offs. The firm's track record shows mixed results: Early predictions underestimated ETF impacts, but later ones have captured market movements more accurately.

Potential Challenges and Criticisms

Despite the structured reasoning, VanEck's $644,000 forecast has drawn scrutiny for its assumptions. Critics argue that it relies on Bitcoin fully embodying the "digital gold" narrative without considering its historical volatility, including 50% drawdowns in past cycles, or competition from other cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. Hive Intelligence suggests a more conservative $200,000 to $350,000 for the current cycle unless inflows accelerate significantly.

Regulatory hurdles pose risks; a price surge could prompt stricter oversight or bans in major markets, alongside vulnerabilities like 51% attacks if mining centralizes further. Sigel acknowledges "security budget concerns" as adoption must outpace threats. Demographic adoption may not fully materialize, as older generations and institutions, which control most wealth, favor gold's established role in central bank reserves. Environmental issues related to mining energy consumption, though less prominent now, could reemerge.

Past VanEck estimates, such as the $250,000 by 2028 target, have been revised upward due to gold's performance, highlighting sensitivity to external factors. Bear scenarios include prices as low as $130,000 by 2050 if scaling problems persist. 

Meanwhile, other firms offer differing views: Bernstein predicts $200,000 by early 2026. Some observers note Bitcoin's price in gold terms has remained flat since 2021, questioning its relative strength. Analysts like Charlie Morris of ByteTree suggest gold's rally may soon peak, potentially shifting momentum to Bitcoin in risk asset rotations.

Conclusion

VanEck's Bitcoin forecast draws on a detailed comparison to gold's market role, supported by historical halvings, demographic trends, and institutional inflows through ETFs. It builds on the firm's prior predictions, which have shown increasing alignment with market developments, though adjustments reflect sensitivities to gold prices and macro conditions. 

For investors, this analysis suggests considering Bitcoin allocations around 3% for balanced portfolios, as Sigel recommends, while monitoring indicators such as hashrate and ETF flows from reports like ChainCheck. The forecast underscores Bitcoin's position in global finance, warranting close observation of its trajectory against gold and broader economic shifts.

Sources: 

• Matthew Sigel's X post on Bitcoin forecast: https://x.com/matthew_sigel/status/1975369599492174214 
• CoinDesk article on Bitcoin rebound and VanEck's view: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/08/bitcoin-rebounds-above-usd123k-as-miners-rally-vaneck-sees-usd644k-btc-amid-gold-gains 
• Bernstein Prediction: https://www.theblock.co/post/362450/bernstein-long-exhausting-crypto-bull-market-bitcoin-200000-by-early-2026 
• VanEck Bitcoin Price Prediction By 2050: https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-bitcoin-2050-valuation-scenarios-global-medium-of-exchange-and-reserve-asset/