Can Litecoin Win SEC Approval for a Spot ETF in 2025?

The probability of a Litecoin (LTC) spot ETF being approved in 2025 is currently estimated at 87%, according to prediction platform Polymarket. However, recent delays from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and competing applications from other crypto assets suggest that while approval is possible, it is not guaranteed.

Litecoin’s price action reflects this uncertainty. After climbing to a five-month high of $133, fueled by ETF rumors and corporate treasury investment, LTC has since pulled back. It trades at $155.60, down 5.8% in the past seven days, and 1.7% this month, giving the coin a market cap of $8.81 billion (CoinMarketCap).

Why a Litecoin ETF Matters

A spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) allows investors to gain exposure to the underlying asset—here, Litecoin—without directly holding or managing it. Spot ETFs differ from futures ETFs, as they track the actual market price of the asset.

Approval of a Litecoin ETF would carry several implications:

• Institutional access: Opens the door for traditional funds and retirement accounts to allocate capital to LTC.
• Liquidity growth: ETFs historically drive higher daily volumes, as seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum.
• Market legitimacy: SEC approval signals regulatory confidence in LTC’s maturity and resilience.

For now, investors are weighing whether Litecoin will become the third major cryptocurrency—after Bitcoin and Ethereum—to gain spot ETF approval in the U.S.

Current Status of Litecoin ETF Filings

Several investment managers have filed for a Litecoin ETF:

• Canary Capital: First to submit, filing with Nasdaq on January 15, 2025.
• Grayscale Investments: Filed shortly after, targeting NYSE Arca.
• CoinShares: Entered the race with a similar product, adding weight to institutional interest.

Despite these moves, the SEC has delayed decisions on all Litecoin ETF applications until October 2025, grouping them with reviews of XRP and Solana ETFs. The Commission cited the need for more public input and further evaluation of fraud prevention standards.

Earlier, public comments were open until May 26, 2025, with rebuttals accepted through June 9, 2025.

The SEC’s Cautious Stance

The SEC has taken a methodical approach to crypto ETFs. Approval for Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs only came after multiple rejections and extensive legal battles.

Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, noted:

“The SEC is conducting careful reviews, but approvals remain possible if regulatory concerns are addressed by October 2025.”

Key concerns for the SEC include:

• Market manipulation risks in crypto spot markets.
• Investor protection standards and custody solutions.
• Surveillance-sharing agreements with regulated exchanges.

Until these issues are fully addressed, delays remain the SEC’s preferred approach.

Prediction Market Odds and Analyst Views

• Polymarket: 87% chance of LTC ETF approval in 2025.
• Myriad: Nearly two-thirds of users predict an XRP ETF will be approved before Litecoin’s.
• Last February, Bloomberg ETF analysts, James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, estimated a 90% chance that US regulators will approve a spot Litecoin ETF before year-end.
• Illia Otychenko (CEX.IO): Argues the main driver of recent LTC strength is corporate treasury investment, not ETF speculation.

Otychenko points to MEI Pharma’s $100 million treasury allocation into Litecoin as the real catalyst behind its price surge, noting that “90% ETF odds have been priced in since February.”

Market Adoption Signals

Beyond ETF speculation, Litecoin shows steady adoption as a payment currency:

• CoinGate data: Litecoin accounted for 14.5% of crypto payments processed in the past month.
• This places LTC second only to Bitcoin, ahead of USDC.
• Payment adoption highlights Litecoin’s long-standing reputation as a fast and low-fee network.

Such utility strengthens the case for an ETF by showing real-world use beyond speculative trading.

Short-Term Volatility, Long-Term Positioning

Regulatory delays have created sharp market swings. For example, analysts noted a recent price range of $84.65 to $89.51 as traders sold off amid disappointment at SEC postponements.

Still, institutional managers remain prepared:

• Grayscale, Bitwise, and CoinShares are continuing to build ETF infrastructure.
• Market precedent shows that once approvals come, inflows are rapid, as happened with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
• The October 2025 deadline is the key milestone for Litecoin, XRP, and Solana ETFs.

Competing Assets: XRP and Solana

Litecoin is not the only asset under review. The SEC is considering multiple altcoin ETF applications at the same time:

• XRP: Strong community and corporate support; prediction markets favor XRP’s approval first.
• Solana (SOL): Fast-growing ecosystem, but regulatory risks tied to past SEC lawsuits against tokens may weigh on decisions.

The fact that Litecoin, Solana, and XRP are being reviewed together suggests the SEC is evaluating altcoin ETFs as a category rather than in isolation.

Bloomberg ETF analysts estimate a 90% chance that US regulators will approve a spot Litecoin ETF before year-end.

Last February, analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas believe Litecoin has stronger odds than other pending proposals, including spot ETFs for XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin, which they place at 65%, 70%, and 75% likelihood of approval in 2025.

What This Means for Litecoin Investors

For now, investors should expect:

• Ongoing volatility tied to regulatory headlines.
• No final decision before October 2025.
• Institutional inflows only once an ETF is approved, but firms are positioning early.

Even if approval does not arrive immediately, the SEC’s procedural moves show Litecoin remains in consideration—an important signal in itself.

Conclusion

The probability of a Litecoin spot ETF approval in 2025 sits near 85%, but SEC delays and competing filings for XRP and Solana mean nothing is guaranteed. Institutional interest is strong, with multiple asset managers applying for ETFs and companies like MEI Pharma committing treasury capital.

The final deadline of October 2025 will be decisive. Until then, Litecoin remains caught between growing adoption, corporate interest, and regulatory caution. Approval would likely bring inflows and legitimacy, but investors must prepare for a drawn-out process.

Resources:

1. Polymarket odds of a Litecoin LTC spot ETF getting approved: https://polymarket.com/event/litecoin-etf-approved-in-2025/litecoin-etf-approved-in-2025

2. Litecoin price action: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/litecoin/

3. Myriad’s odds of “XRP vs Litecoin: Which ETF will be approved first?”: https://myriad.markets/markets/xrp-vs-litecoin-which-etf-will-be-approved-first-9f8eab80-5487-4e81-85bb-cbced5cad595