Coinbase Prediction Markets: The New Platform Explained

Coinbase's prediction markets feature is built directly into the main Coinbase app and website, letting users trade contracts based on real-world event outcomes. Think sports results, crypto price targets, Fed decisions, or even award show winners. The platform launched on December 17, 2025, and achieved nationwide availability for verified U.S. users by late January 2026.

The feature operates through a partnership with Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market operator. Coinbase Financial Markets, Inc. handles the backend as a registered futures commission merchant and NFA member. Users can fund trades with USD or USDC starting at just $1.

How Do Prediction Markets Work?

Prediction markets function as crowd-sourced probability engines. Each contract poses a simple yes-or-no question tied to a future event. For example: "Will the Federal Reserve maintain rates in March 2026?"

Contracts trade between $0 and $1. The price reflects the market's implied probability. A contract at $0.70 suggests the crowd thinks there's a 70% chance of "yes."

Here's how it plays out. Say you spot a contract asking whether Bitcoin will hit a certain price target, trading at $0.50. You buy 10 "Yes" contracts. Total cost: $5.00 plus fees. If Bitcoin hits the target, each contract pays out $1. You receive $10.00, netting $5.00 profit minus fees. If sentiment shifts before settlement and your contracts jump to $0.75, you could sell early and pocket $2.50 per contract instead.

Settlements rely on objective sources like official data releases or verified APIs, with specific rules outlined for each market. Payouts land in your Coinbase account after settlement. All activity uses fiat currency or stablecoins.

Trading runs nearly around the clock, pausing only for maintenance on Thursdays from 3:00 to 5:00 a.m. ET. No cap on contract volume, though large orders may fill at varying prices depending on liquidity.

What Can You Trade On?

The platform covers a wide range of categories with thousands of active contracts. New markets get added regularly. Current categories include:

• Sports: Championship outcomes, MVP awards, game results. The Big Game market, for instance, currently shows Seattle at 68% odds against New England.
• Crypto: Price thresholds like "Bitcoin above $80,000 by end of Q1 2026?"
• Politics: Leadership changes, election-related events
• Economics: Federal Reserve decisions, inflation rates, CPI targets
• Entertainment: Award show results, cultural events

Technology, science, weather, company news, and social trends round out the offerings. Some markets see serious volume. Fed-related contracts alone have pulled in over $14 million in trading activity.

The Bigger Picture

Coinbase is building toward what it calls the "Everything Exchange" vision. Prediction markets slot in alongside crypto trading and stock access, positioning the platform as a one-stop financial hub. The regulated structure through Kalshi adds regulatory clarity, while the low $1 minimum lowers the barrier for users wanting to test the waters.

Whether you're hedging economic views, putting conviction behind crypto price calls, or wanting skin in the game on Super Bowl outcomes, the infrastructure is now live and accessible.

For full details, visit the official Coinbase website at coinbase.com or follow them on X @coinbase.

Sources:

• Coinbase – Official prediction markets platform page with trading mechanics and FAQ
• Coinbase Blog – December 17, 2025 System Update announcement
• CoinDesk – Coverage of nationwide rollout and Kalshi partnership
• Yahoo Finance – Reporting on all 50 states availability and trading volumes