Bitcoin's Next Major Support May Be $53,600

Realized Price Flags a Potential Floor

On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has identified $53,600 as a level worth watching for Bitcoin $BTC. That figure is Bitcoin's current realized price, or the aggregate on-chain cost basis of all market participants, according to CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno. The realized price is an on-chain metric that reflects the average purchase price of market participants.

Historically, Bitcoin has bottomed at or marginally below the realized price in each major bear cycle. The realized price was briefly breached during the FTX-driven selloff in November 2022 before Bitcoin recovered, making it one of the market's key valuation levels. Moreno is careful to frame the call as a possibility rather than a prediction. Moreno stressed that the call is a scenario, not a forecast. Reaching the realized price would align with how past bottoms formed, but there is no guarantee the market sinks that far.

Bitcoin fell to a fresh bear market low of around $59,000 last week, leaving it just 9% above its current realized price of $53,600, but it has since recovered and was trading at around $62,150.

Demand Deterioration and the Missing Capitulation Signal

The bigger concern flagged by CryptoQuant is the state of demand. The combined demand for perpetual futures contracts and the spot market fell by 652,000 Bitcoin last week, representing the largest weekly contraction recorded since January 2022. Thirty-day ETF demand growth has fallen to negative 74,000 Bitcoin, the weakest reading since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, and rather than absorbing selling pressure, ETFs are now contributing to net supply expansion as investors reduce exposure.

Despite the sharp price decline, one key ingredient of a classic bear market bottom is still absent. Realized losses have not yet reached bear market capitulation levels. Bitcoin holders realized losses totaling 187,000 Bitcoin over the past 30 days, compared with 400,000 Bitcoin when Bitcoin first fell below $60,000 in this bear market in February 2026 and 1.2 million Bitcoin during the FTX-driven market bottom in November 2022.

"The absence of a capitulation-level spike in realized losses indicates that a large cohort of holders is still above water at $59,000, and has not yet reached the psychological threshold of forced or panic selling," Moreno wrote. Bitcoin may be nearing a bottom in price terms, Moreno wrote, but a recovery in demand is essential for a return to a bull market.

Sources:
The Block: CryptoQuant sees bitcoin bottom near $53,600 while demand remains 'deeply unfavorable'
TheStreet: Analyst reveals the next Bitcoin bottom price