Binance Sees Bitcoin Sell Pressure Cooling

Binance Research has identified a cluster of on-chain signals pointing to easing sell-side pressure in the Bitcoin market, with available supply tightening across several key metrics.

Long-Term Holders Tighten Their Grip

In a report published on May 17, Binance Research said on-chain indicators suggest the amount of $BTC supply available for sale is shrinking, with four key metrics pointing to easing supply pressure. Chief among them is the growing dominance of long-term holders. Glassnode data cited by the firm showed nearly 60% of the Bitcoin supply has not moved in more than a year, while balances on exchanges are at a six-year low.

The broader trend is consistent with recent market data. Bitcoin held by so-called conviction buyers has surged to nearly 4 million BTC, a roughly 300% increase since late 2025, signaling a major shift of supply into long-term, low-activity hands. Analysts say this accumulation is tightening liquid supply on exchanges and could set the stage for a future supply shock if demand accelerates.

Muted Speculation, Improving Profitability

Binance Research flagged that the SLRV ratio, a measure comparing short-term and long-term holdings, is hovering near historic lows, suggesting excessive short-term speculation in the market remains limited. The reading points to a market where conviction holders are dominant rather than short-term traders looking to flip positions quickly.

At the same time, the Short-Term Holder MVRV metric, which tracks profitability for short-term holders, has recently climbed back above 1.0 after remaining below that level for a considerable period since November last year. Binance Research said this means existing investors have re-entered a zone of unrealized profits. That shift is notable, though it also introduces some caution: holders moving back into profit can create conditions where selling becomes more likely if macro conditions deteriorate.

One of the most notable developments is the decline in Bitcoin reserves on major exchanges like Binance, which have dropped to their lowest levels since the start of 2026. This reduction in available supply suggests that coins are increasingly being moved off exchanges into cold storage or long-term holdings, effectively reducing immediate selling pressure in the market.

The on-chain picture comes against a challenging macro backdrop. Bitcoin slipped below $77,000 in Asia as rising oil prices and higher Treasury yields pressured risk assets, with prediction markets pricing an overwhelming chance the Fed will hold rates steady through at least July, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.

Sources:
Bloomingbit: Binance Research Says Bitcoin Sell Pressure Is Easing as Supply May Tighten
CoinDesk: Bitcoin Slides Under $77,000 as Oil Shock and Treasury Yields Hit Risk Assets
CoinDesk: Bitcoin's Available Supply Is Shrinking as Long-Term Holding Hits Record 4 Million BTC