Meta is quietly building a prediction markets app to take on Kalshi and Polymarket

Meta Enters the Prediction Markets Race

Mark Zuckerberg has directed @Meta staff to build a standalone prediction markets app called Arena, according to a New York Times report. The app would let users wager on the outcomes of real-world events, from sports contests to political races, but with a points-based system rather than real money, at least at launch. Internal documents obtained by NPR describe users receiving a daily virtual allotment of play money to place bets, with AI resolving market outcomes in near real-time.

People familiar with the project describe it as experimental but a top priority. Meta has reportedly not ruled out introducing real-money betting in future versions, a move that could put it in direct regulatory crosshairs. For now, the points-only format may give Meta time to navigate a contested legal landscape. Gaming lawyer Daniel Wallach told NPR that launching without monetary stakes could allow the company breathing room to apply for federal regulatory licenses while more than 30 pending lawsuits over prediction market legality work their way through the courts.

A Massive Built-In Audience Sets Meta Apart

What separates Arena from rivals is distribution. Meta's family of apps reported 3.56 billion daily active users, a built-in audience that dwarfs anything Polymarket or Kalshi can reach organically. Arena reportedly targets at least 100 million monthly active predictors in the 18-to-34 age bracket. Zuckerberg has also asked Meta executives to explore partnership deals directly with Polymarket and Kalshi, which could accelerate adoption further.

The broader prediction markets sector has grown sharply. Kalshi and Polymarket combined for roughly $50 billion in trading volume in 2025, a figure that has already surpassed $130 billion in 2026. Analysts at Bernstein project the sector could reach $1 trillion in annual volume by the end of the decade.

This is not Meta's first attempt. The company launched a crowdsourced prediction app called Forecast in 2020 and shut it down two years later. Internal documents describe Arena as a rebuild of that earlier effort, this time powered by AI to cut the manual curation costs that sank Forecast. Arena remains in early development and may not necessarily launch publicly.

Sources:
NPR: Meta plans to release AI-powered prediction market app, documents show
CCN: Meta Reportedly Building Arena Prediction Markets App to Challenge Polymarket and Kalshi