Galaxy Research Cuts Down on Clarity Act Legislation Possibility

Galaxy Research has cut its estimate of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 from 50% to 30%, the latest in a series of downgrades for a crypto market structure bill that has repeatedly run into procedural and political headwinds on Capitol Hill.

The 60-Vote Problem

The central obstacle remains the Senate's cloture rule. Supporters face a difficult vote calculation as lawmakers seek the 60 votes required to overcome a Senate filibuster, meaning Republicans need at least seven Democrats to cross the aisle if the GOP caucus holds together. Yet the 616-page bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May with only two Democratic votes, leaving a significant gap to close on the floor.

Galaxy's Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn said the legislation itself is largely complete following the release of a combined Senate draft, but that the chamber currently lacks the votes needed for passage. He warned the practical deadline to begin Senate voting is likely July 30, despite Congress remaining in session until early August.

Adding to the pressure, Senate Democrats including Senators Murphy, Van Hollen, and Merkley have formally opposed the latest version of the bill after a merged draft omitted ethics provisions they had demanded. Specifically, some Democrats objected to how the bill handles enforcement of rules that would ban elected officials from issuing crypto, with senators who backed an earlier version now vowing to oppose the new one.

A Shrinking Window

The downgrade from 50% to 30% follows a string of reductions. Galaxy had placed the bill's odds at 75% in May after signs of bipartisan progress, before cutting to 60% and then to 50% as the Senate calendar filled up. Each reduction tracked available session days rather than any fundamental change in the bill's content.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has indicated he wants the Senate to at least begin considering the legislation before the August recess, telling reporters: "I would like to at least get Clarity started. We'll see where the votes are." However, no cloture motion has yet been filed and no floor date has been formally scheduled.

The bill's path to law also depends on further steps beyond a Senate vote. It still requires reconciliation with the House-passed version, which cleared the lower chamber in July 2025 by a 294-134 margin, and ultimately a presidential signature. Prediction markets reflect similar scepticism, with Polymarket currently assigning the bill around a 33% chance of passing in 2026.

If the summer window closes without a vote, analysts warn the bill could slip into 2027, an election-shadowed year that would make bipartisan votes even harder to secure.

Sources:
Bitcoin.com News: CLARITY Act Passage Odds Cut to 30% as Senate Vote Faces Challenges
The Block: Galaxy Cuts Clarity Act Passage Odds to 30%
CNBC: Senate Crypto Bill Would Ban Federal Officials From Issuing Digital Assets