The Metal Nobody'S Watching Just Hit An All-Time High

Copper closed at a record $6.4605 per pound on Monday, rising over 2% on the session and touching an intraday high of $6.509. The metal is up more than 13% year-to-date, yet it continues to attract far less attention than oil or gold.

The move extends a powerful run for the red metal. Investing News Network notes that copper hit an all-time intraday high of $6.61 per pound on COMEX as recently as January 29, 2026, driven by a buying spree tied to expectations of stronger US economic growth and accelerating global data center investment.

Speculators Are Piling In

CFTC data from April 18 showed speculative long positions in copper jumping from 40,200 to 55,100 contracts, with positioning continuing to build. The copper-oil ratio tells a similar story: markets appear to be betting that industrial demand for copper will outlast the geopolitical war premium embedded in crude prices.

J.P. Morgan has flagged the dynamic directly, noting that while the ongoing Iran conflict has weighed on some industrial commodity sentiment, copper has proven resilient. The bank observed that copper prices have rebounded to around $13,000 per metric ton as of mid-April, representing only a roughly 2% decline from pre-conflict levels, even as broader risk-off sentiment lingers.

Three Structural Drivers, One Price Signal

Copper's rally is not simply a speculative trade. The metal is simultaneously pricing in three of the largest infrastructure build-outs of the decade. S&P Global projects copper demand will surge from 28 million metric tons in 2025 to 42 million metric tons by 2040, driven by AI data centers, EV adoption, and grid modernization.

On the data center side alone, the numbers are striking. Tom's Hardware reports that asset manager Sprott estimates data centers will consume around 1.1 million tonnes of copper annually by 2030, close to 3% of total global demand. Commodities trader Trafigura has put the AI-driven data center contribution at up to 1 million metric tons of additional copper demand by 2030.

On the supply side, the picture is tight. The International Energy Agency notes that copper prices briefly exceeded $14,500 per tonne intraday in January 2026, and structural pressures on smelter economics remain acute, with treatment and refining charges hitting all-time lows as concentrate supply fails to keep pace with smelting capacity.

For a market accustomed to watching oil headlines and gold safe-haven flows, the copper chart may be the most consequential price signal that investors are not yet paying enough attention to.

Sources:
J.P. Morgan: Copper Prices Outlook
S&P Global: Copper in the Age of AI
IEA: Copper Prices Hit Record Highs