A new bill would ban Congress from betting on its own decisions

Rep. Bryan Steil (@RepBryanSteil) has introduced legislation that would bar members of Congress, their spouses, and their dependent children from placing bets on prediction markets tied to government policy or political outcomes.

What the Bill Does

The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act prohibits members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from wagering on public policy issues and political outcomes. It covers wagers on whether specific government policies or actions will happen, will not happen, or the degree to which they occur, as well as political outcomes or any event that came to the attention of a covered individual because of their service in Congress.

Violators must pay a fee equal to $2,000 or ten percent of the value of the prohibited transaction, whichever is greater, and the net gain realized from the transaction. Lawmakers could not use their Members Representational Allowance, Senate personnel and office expense accounts, or political donations to cover the fine. If a lawmaker leaves office or retires without paying the penalty, the Justice Department could pursue civil enforcement if the bill becomes law.

The provision is being added to a pending bill that would ban members of Congress from purchasing new shares of individual stocks other than shares that are bought with dividends from existing holdings. GOP lawmakers have already promised that the bill, which is backed by House Speaker Mike Johnson and President Donald Trump, will get a vote on the House floor.

Why Now

The bill follows news reports highlighting concerns about the use of nonpublic information in prediction markets, including candidates wagering on their own elections. Under current law, lawmakers are not explicitly prohibited from using prediction markets to wager on public policy issues or election outcomes.

In April, Kalshi suspended three congressional candidates who wagered on their own candidacies. The episode was part of a broader pattern that drew Congressional attention. Federal authorities also arrested active-duty Army communications specialist Gannon Ken Van Dyke, charging him with using classified intelligence regarding a U.S. military operation to trade election and geopolitical contracts on Polymarket, parlaying a $33,000 position into more than $409,000 in alleged illicit profits.

Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have surged in popularity over the past year, fueling concerns that traders could profit from nonpublic information. Neither platform is named directly in Steil's bill, but both sit squarely in its scope. The legislation builds on the Stop Insider Trading Act, which was advanced by the Committee on House Administration on January 14, 2026.

The U.S. Senate had already unanimously passed a rule barring senators from trading on prediction markets, effective immediately. Steil's House bill now extends that principle into statute, with enforceable financial penalties attached.

Sources:
House Administration Committee: Chairman Steil Introduces the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act
CNBC: GOP Rep. Steil pushes bill curbing members of Congress from prediction market betting
PBS NewsHour: Kalshi fines and suspends 3 congressional candidates for betting on their own elections