Clarity Act Odds Surge On Polymarket

Polymarket traders are pricing a 75% probability that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act will be signed into law in 2026, up roughly 10 percentage points from recent lows, as momentum builds in Washington ahead of a critical legislative window.

A Volatile Road to 75%

The bill's odds on the prediction platform have swung sharply throughout the year. The likelihood of the CLARITY Act being enacted in 2026 bottomed at 40% in January before rallying to a peak of 82% by February 20. Odds then slid again as Senate delays mounted, falling 21 points in five days, from 64% on April 18 to 43%, before recovering to their current level. The market has generated $651,800 in total trading volume since launching on January 11, 2026, reflecting the depth of interest among prediction market participants.

The jump back toward the mid-70s came after senators reached a deal on stablecoin yield, with Coinbase executives expressing support for the agreement. The bill would ban interest or yield that is economically or functionally equivalent to interest-bearing bank deposits, while allowing rewards or incentives tied to bona fide activities or transactions.

Washington Closes In on a Deadline

White House digital assets adviser Patrick Witt said the administration is targeting July 4 for House passage of the CLARITY Act, with the Senate Banking Committee markup planned for May and four working Senate weeks in June for floor passage. Senator Gillibrand predicted a final vote could happen in the first week of August, which would mark the last chance before Congress's summer break.

For the first time in its history, Congress is moving to materially regulate cryptocurrency through comprehensive market structure legislation, with the bill designed to provide long-sought jurisdictional clarity between the SEC and the CFTC while creating a framework intended to protect consumers and investors.

The stakes are high. Senator Cynthia Lummis warned that failure to act this year would mean waiting until at least 2030 for another shot at comprehensive crypto regulation, as a new Congress would need to restart the entire legislative process from scratch. The practical implication is that any Senate floor vote needs to happen before August 2026, when campaigning begins in earnest and the Senate's calendar effectively closes for controversial votes.

Prediction market odds reflect trader sentiment and do not constitute investment advice.

Sources:
Polymarket: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
CoinDesk: White House targets July 4 for Clarity Act passage
CoinDesk: Crypto's great hope in Senate's Clarity Act still has a path