Bitcoin Could Reach $1m In Five Years

VanEck Sets $1 Million as Its Base Case

Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, told CNBC on May 6 that Bitcoin ($BTC) reaching $1 million within five years is now the firm's base case. Speaking on the Halftime Report, Sigel cited demographic trends and the first central bank Bitcoin reserve purchase as structural mega-trends driving his outlook.

Sigel compared Bitcoin's adoption curve to the video game industry, arguing that people who enter the asset class tend not to leave it. He pointed to the growing intentions of younger investors to allocate to Bitcoin as a key long-term driver, suggesting the asset follows a similar arc from niche to mainstream.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.44 billion in inflows in April 2026 alone, marking the strongest month since the 2025 peak, a data point that reinforces the institutional momentum Sigel has long cited as central to his bull case.

A Growing Chorus of $1 Million Calls

Sigel is not alone in the forecast. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan also called for Bitcoin reaching $1 million last month, and on the same day as Sigel's CNBC appearance, Eric Trump echoed the same target.

Hougan's argument rests on a store-of-value market thesis. In a memo titled "How Bitcoin Gets to $1 Million," Hougan said investors often underestimate Bitcoin's potential because they overlook how much the store-of-value market has grown. Today, that market sits at just under $38 trillion, including roughly $36 trillion in gold and about $1.4 trillion in Bitcoin. If the store-of-value market continues growing at a historical pace, Hougan estimates it could reach about $121 trillion within the next decade, at which point Bitcoin would only need to capture roughly 17% of the market to reach $1 million per coin.

Hougan also argues that because Bitcoin remains a non-consensus asset, institutions willing to allocate to it face career risk and therefore tend to have unusually high conviction, making their capital very sticky even in volatile markets.

All three predictions carry the standard caveats. Bitcoin remains a highly speculative asset, and long-range price targets from institutions with existing holdings should be weighed accordingly. Still, the convergence of forecasts from asset managers and public figures marks a notable shift in how mainstream finance is framing Bitcoin's long-term potential.

Sources:
CNBC: Bitcoin to hit $1M in next five years, says VanEck's head of digital assets research
CoinDesk: Analysts weigh in on Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan's $1 million Bitcoin call
The Block: Bitwise CIO reiterates Bitcoin price could reach $1 million as he compares it to gold