Ethereum, often regarded as the silver to Bitcoin's gold, is currently under the spotlight for a potential breakthrough – the approval of a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF). 

With a surge in investor enthusiasm in the manner of the excitement surrounding Bitcoin in 2023, the anticipation is apparent. Notably, even BlackRock is interested in offering a spot in Ethereum ETF. 

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has set a timetable, targeting May 2024, for the potential approval of a spot Ethereum ETF.

In the months leading up to the SEC decision, the market is abuzz with predictions of Ethereum prices. But when can we expect the approval of spot Ethereum ETF?

‍

JPMorgan's Take on Approval Probability

JPMorgan estimates the probability of the SEC approving the ETF by May to be no more than 50%. As per a report from The Block, a notable indicator of this uncertainty is the discount to net asset value (NAV) for the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), hovering around 12% over the past two months. The SEC's decision not to mention Ethereum in its recent lawsuit against crypto exchanges has ignited debates within the crypto community. 

Some argue that this silence may indicate an imminent classification of Ethereum as a commodity, a prerequisite for spot ETF approval. However, JPMorgan analysts remain skeptical, questioning the significance of the SEC's approval of ether futures-based ETFs in September last year.

‍

Mark Yusko's Perspective

Mark Yusko, co-founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, offers a skeptical perspective. Despite a 70% chance, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, Yusko believes the SEC is unlikely to approve a spot Ether ETF in 2024. 

In an interview with CoinTelegraph, Yusko points to the SEC's persisting hostility toward cryptocurrencies, as indicated by the agency's head, Gary Gensler, on the day of the recent Bitcoin ETF approval.

The overarching skepticism of the SEC toward cryptocurrencies remains a significant obstacle. Yusko adds another layer, suggesting that the SEC may still regard Ethereum as a security, unlike Bitcoin, which enjoys the classification of a commodity.

‍

Comparing Ethereum and Bitcoin

Ethereum stands as the second-largest player with a market cap of $299 billion, yet still less than half of Bitcoin's staggering $809 billion value. 

Drawing parallels with the recent Bitcoin ETF approval, investors are exhibiting a similar trend with Ethereum. The anticipation of a spot Ethereum ETF approval is prompting a surge in Ethereum's value, aligning with the broader bullish sentiment in the crypto market.

Ethereum (ETH) is trading at $2484, up, 11.5% in a month.