Donald Trump Presidency May Propel Bitcoin to New Heights - Standard Chartered

As the U.S. gears up for the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump's potential re-election is viewed by Standard Chartered as a catalyst that could significantly propel Bitcoin's value. 

With the election just six months away, the financial climate is buzzing with anticipation, positioning Trump as a formidable candidate against Joe Biden in a repeat of the 2020 election showdown.

Supportive Measures for Bitcoin in a Trump Presidency

The report from Standard Chartered elaborates that Trump’s administration could actively support Bitcoin and broader digital assets through looser regulations and the potential approval of U.S. spot ETFs. 

This proactive stance is expected to enhance the attractiveness of Bitcoin as an investment amid fiscal uncertainties. 

During Trump's first term, there was significant net selling of U.S. government debt, a trend that could accelerate if he returns to office, thereby increasing the appeal of alternative assets like Bitcoin.

Monetizing government debt, according to Standard Chartered, is potentially a supportive environment for cryptocurrencies. 

Analyst Geoff Kendrick points out that in such a scenario, Bitcoin could serve as an effective hedge against de-dollarization and declining confidence in the U.S. Treasury market. 

"In a scenario of U.S. fiscal dominance, we think bitcoin (BTC) would provide a good hedge against de-dollarization and declining confidence in the U.S. Treasury market,” Kendrick said.

Kendrick notes three potential impacts on the U.S. Treasury curve that could correlate positively with Bitcoin's price: a steeper nominal 2-year/10-year curve, a greater increase in breakevens compared to real yields, and a rise in term premium.

Economic Conditions Favoring Bitcoin

Standard Chartered's revised economic outlook sees Bitcoin as increasingly viable. Recent macroeconomic developments, such as less hawkish moves from the Federal Reserve and a strong U.S. jobs report, have shifted the market sentiment. 

The bank notes a recovery in Bitcoin's price, with significant inflows into U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs and notable increases in Hong Kong ETFs as well. This marks a recovery from recent lows, signaling improved investor confidence and market conditions that favor Bitcoin.

Reflecting on these developments, Standard Chartered maintains an optimistic forecast for Bitcoin, predicting significant price milestones of $150,000 by the end of the year and $200,000 by the end of 2025. This bullish outlook is based on the expected regulatory changes, fiscal policies, and macroeconomic factors that could influence the cryptocurrency market.