Litecoin ETF Approval Odds Soar to 90%, Leading Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin - Bloomberg Analysts

Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have assigned Litecoin ($LTC) the highest probability of spot ETF approval in 2025, rating its chances at 90%. This puts LTC ahead of Dogecoin (75%), Solana (70%), and XRP (65%), marking a significant shift in institutional sentiment toward altcoins.

Balchunas noted that before the U.S. election, these ETFs had less than a 5% chance of approval, but the political climate and regulatory landscape have changed. With the SEC acknowledging the 19b-4 filings for Litecoin ETFs, the path for approval looks clearer than ever.

Why Litecoin Has the Best Odds

The key reason for Litecoin’s strong approval chances is its regulatory status. Since LTC is a Bitcoin fork that operates on the same proof-of-work (PoW) mechanism, analysts believe it will be classified as a commodity rather than a security. The other reasons are:

SEC and CFTC Favorability – Unlike XRP and Solana, which have been labeled as securities in lawsuits, Litecoin has been treated as a commodity in legal proceedings.

No ICO or Pre-Sale – Litecoin never conducted an initial coin offering (ICO), making it less likely to be targeted by the SEC.

Grayscale and Canary Capital Filings – Both firms have submitted spot LTC ETF applications, which meet all regulatory criteria according to analysts.

Dogecoin ($DOGE) follows with a 75% approval chance, primarily because it shares Litecoin’s PoW model and lacks an ICO. However, since the SEC has not yet acknowledged DOGE ETF filings, it ranks slightly below Litecoin.

Solana and XRP Face Regulatory Hurdles

While Solana ($SOL) and XRP ($XRP) have a fair chance of ETF approval, their regulatory status remains unclear.

XRP’s Legal Battle – The SEC vs. Ripple case is still unresolved, and while a 2023 ruling stated that XRP is not a security when sold on secondary markets, the SEC continues to challenge this decision.

Solana’s Security Status – Solana was directly named as a security in the SEC lawsuits against Coinbase and Binance, making its classification a bigger hurdle for ETF approval.

Despite these challenges, the SEC and Commissioner Hester Peirce’s Crypto Task Force are expected to clarify the security vs. commodity debate by the end of 2025, which could improve the odds for these assets.

Political Shift Boosts Crypto ETF Prospects

Balchunas pointed out that the regulatory environment shifted after Donald Trump’s election victory. The new administration appears more open to crypto, signaling a potential softening of the SEC’s stance on digital assets.

This political shift has accelerated ETF filings, with Nasdaq recently submitting 19b-4 forms for Litecoin and XRP ETFs on behalf of CoinShares. In addition, Cboe BZX Exchange has filed applications for XRP ETFs from Bitwise, 21Shares, and Canary Capital.

Growing Market Confidence in Crypto ETFs

Market sentiment toward altcoin ETFs has improved dramatically in 2025. According to Polymarket data, Litecoin ETF approval odds surged from 42% in January to over 81% today.

Analysts predict that more crypto ETFs will emerge, with issuers testing multiple products to see which ones gain traction. Per reports, firms will launch numerous ETFs, and only the most successful will survive.