Summary

• BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that Bitcoin is in a bull market that has been going on for the past 6 months.
• He argues that the market has yet to fully realize this bull market, and that it will become more apparent in the next 6 to 12 months.
• Hayes pinpoints March 10 as the start of the bull market, coinciding with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's takeover of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).

In a recent keynote speech at Korea Blockchain Week, former BitMEX CEO and co-founder, Arthur Hayes, made a bold proclamation that the Bitcoin bull market has already begun. 

According to Hayes, Bitcoin has been on a bull run for the past six months, and the market has yet to respond. Hayes argues that this significant surge in Bitcoin's price, up by approximately 26% at present, will only become more apparent to the market in the next six to twelve months.

Hayes pinpointed March 10 as the start of this bullish trend, coinciding with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's takeover of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Just days before this takeover, Silvergate Bank had gone into liquidation, and shortly after, on March 12, New York regulators forced Signature Bank to close its doors.

In response to these financial challenges, the Federal Reserve rolled out the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), providing banks with loans of up to one year in exchange for "qualifying assets" as collateral. Hayes, in his speech, noted that the BTFP essentially functioned as a lifeline for the banking system, where troubled assets were exchanged for fresh dollars, leading to an increased money supply.

Hayes interpreted this move as an implicit admission by the Fed that the banking system's structure was flawed and needed correction. He asserted, "Me and the rest of the market rightly saw through this as basically them admitting that they caused this problem—the structure of the banking system—and this is one of the ways you can fix it, which is: print more money."

This change in monetary policy prompted investors to seek refuge in assets with fixed supplies, such as Bitcoin, according to Hayes. He believes that although the broader market has yet to fully react to these developments, it will do so within the next year. Furthermore, Hayes expressed confidence that Bitcoin's performance would remain strong regardless of whether central banks opt for interest rate hikes or additional money printing.

"In both scenarios, whether the Fed raises or cuts, we are in a good position as the cryptocurrency industry," Hayes stated.

It appears that the cryptocurrency market is poised for a potentially transformative period, with Bitcoin leading the way as the bull market quietly gathers steam.