Bitcoin crossed the $71,000 mark for the first time since June. The surge is fueled by a combination of factors including strong inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the heightened anticipation surrounding the upcoming U.S. elections. 

Let's look closely at the possible reasons for the recent surge.

The Impact of ETF Inflows

One significant factor driving Bitcoin's recent surge is the influx of capital into Bitcoin ETFs. In the last two weeks alone, there has been a net inflow of approximately 47,000 BTC into dedicated ETFs, according to SoSoValue data.

This interest indicates strong support from institutional investors, as these funds provide a regulated way for traditional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin. 

Over the same period, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $3 billion, reinforcing the bullish sentiment in the market.

The total trading volume reached $48 billion, nearly double the volumes from earlier in the week, showcasing the market's dynamic response to these developments.

Election Sentiment Drives Speculation

With the U.S. presidential election approaching, speculation about the potential outcomes is also influencing Bitcoin's price. 

Many traders are perceiving Bitcoin as a "Trump trade," driven by Republican nominee Donald Trump's pro-crypto stance. As he leads in prediction markets, traders are betting on a favorable outcome that could lead to a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment.

Analysts from Bitfinex noted that despite ongoing volatility from geopolitical issues and economic uncertainties, the anticipation of a Trump victory has created a positive momentum for Bitcoin. 

Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, suggests that a Trump win could push Bitcoin beyond $75,000 by Election Day, with projections of up to $125,000 if Republicans gain control of Congress. 

Conversely, a victory for Vice President Kamala Harris may result in a temporary dip, but Kendrick believes Bitcoin could still see new highs around $75,000 by the year's end.

The narrative is supported by a significant drop in short positions against Bitcoin, resulting in over $143 million in liquidations in just 12 hours, according to CoinDesk. As traders closed their losing bets, the market experienced upward pressure, further propelling Bitcoin past the key resistance level of $70,000.

Technical Indicators Suggest Bullish Momentum

Bitcoin's recent price action also aligns with technical analysis. The formation of a "golden cross" — where the 50-day moving average surpasses the 200-day moving average — has historically signaled sustained upward momentum. 

This technical pattern has sparked optimism among traders, who are now eyeing potential new highs as we approach the end of the year.

Macroeconomic Factors and Institutional Interest

With expectations of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in early November, liquidity in the markets could improve. This move could benefit crypto assets, as lower interest rates generally make riskier assets more attractive. 

The U.S. Dollar Index and Treasury yields are already feeling the effects, setting the stage for further shifts in investor sentiment.

In addition, companies like Microsoft are rumored to be considering Bitcoin purchases, pending board approval, which could signal a new wave of corporate engagement in the crypto space. The interest is apparent, with the Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow hitting $479 million as of October 28.