Update: Bitcoin ETF Approval in January and FTX 2.0 Expected by May

A recent report from Matrixport provides insights into the cryptocurrency landscape for 2024, outlining key predictions and potential drivers. Let's look at them:

Bitcoin ETF Approval

The report predicts a pivotal moment in the cryptocurrency space, forecasting the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to greenlight a Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) by January 2024. If this materializes, trading is expected to commence by February or March, setting the stage for increased institutional involvement and potentially influencing Bitcoin's price dynamics.

FTX's Resurgence: From Bid Announcement to Operational by May

While FTX's winning bid announcement is anticipated in December 2023, Matrixport envisions the exchange becoming operational by May or June 2024. The report is optimistic about FTX reclaiming its position as a top-three exchange within a year, signaling potential market competitiveness and innovation.

Circle's Stock Market Debut by April

Matrixport's projections extend beyond Bitcoin, suggesting that stablecoin issuer Circle could debut on the stock market by April. This move could further bridge the gap between traditional finance and the cryptocurrency sector, potentially bringing a new wave of investors into the market.

Synergies of Key Events and Bitcoin Halving Cycle

Matrixport underscores the combined impact of the Bitcoin ETF approval, Circle's market debut, and FTX's resurgence, along with the ongoing Bitcoin halving cycle. These factors are expected to inject a substantial dose of momentum into the cryptocurrency market throughout the following year.

Ethereum's Upgrade and Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut

The report identifies Ethereum's scheduled IEP-4844 upgrade in Q1 2024 as a potential catalyst, coinciding with the possibility of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut by mid-2024. These events, along with market expectations for the first rate cut in June 2024, contribute to the overall positive outlook outlined by Matrixport.

Bitcoin Price Outlook and Market Dynamics

Matrixport's near-term forecast suggests that upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data could influence Bitcoin's performance, potentially triggering a rally if inflation declines. The report envisions a breakout from the $34,000 - $35,000 trading range, with Bitcoin aiming for $40,000 and potentially reaching $45,000 by the end of 2023. 

Notably, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent remarks on the need to address inflation underscore the broader economic context influencing these projections.

“With a steady increase in buyers during U.S. trading hours and an ongoing attempt for Bitcoin to break out, we could see prices rallying into the end of the month (and year). The Santa Claus rally could start at any moment,” Matrixport stated in the report.