Arthur Hayes Says AI Bubble Could Crush Bitcoin First

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) is sounding a cautious note on both artificial intelligence valuations and Bitcoin, warning that a wave of major tech listings could drain liquidity from risk assets before crypto gets a chance to benefit.

AI IPOs as the Key Risk

Hayes has pointed to potential initial public offerings from OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX as the central threat to near-term market momentum. Reuters reported that OpenAI had been preparing a confidential IPO filing and could list as early as September 2026, while Bloomberg reported that Anthropic had selected Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase to lead its offering, with a listing potentially as soon as October 2026. Anthropic has already submitted a confidential filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for a proposed initial public offering. Analysts have taken note of the timing: Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives described Anthropic's move as "an opening of the floodgates for the IPO market," with the three major companies set to go public later this year.

Hayes is also concerned about rising energy costs. He cited rising energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions, the three major AI company IPOs expected before the end of Q3 2026, and his view that broader financial markets would peak before September as reasons for his defensive positioning. Some industry participants worry that the AI IPOs could spell bad news for Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency markets, as growing interest in the offerings may drain liquidity from the crypto market.

Maelstrom Trims Altcoins, Holds Bitcoin and Ethereum

Hayes has moved quickly to reduce exposure at his family office Maelstrom. He exited $HYPE and $NEAR on June 4, then dumped $ZEC on June 5 after disclosure of the Orchard shielded-pool vulnerability. Maelstrom sold its entire Zcash position after new disclosures around the Orchard Pool vulnerability sharpened the perceived risk around ZEC's monetary integrity, effectively ending his "Holy Trinity" trade across ZEC, NEAR, and HYPE. Hayes subsequently sold his entire $WLD position on June 6, less than three days after Maelstrom publicly pitched Worldcoin as a liquid AI IPO play.

The fund continues to hold $BTC and $ETH while preparing for possible market turbulence. Hayes has also indicated that derivatives may be used for tactical short positions if conditions deteriorate. Hayes does not view the current AI expansion as durable, and warns that an oversized AI public offering or merger could end the mania. Despite the near-term caution, Hayes argues the path of least resistance for Bitcoin is ultimately up once the liquidity cycle turns in crypto's favour.

Sources:
Arthur Hayes Dumps HYPE and NEAR Ahead of AI IPO Wave, CoinMarketCap
Arthur Hayes Dumps HYPE, NEAR Holdings Ahead of Mega AI IPOs, CoinTelegraph
Anthropic IPO Filing and AI Bubble Comparisons, Fortune